AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win 2-1 as model gives 37.9% chance
Eredivisie sees AZ Alkmaar face FC Twente at AFAS Stadion. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AZ Alkmaar 37.9%, draw 27.6%, FC Twente 34.5%.
AZ Alkmaar have generated 1.90 goals per game (1.07x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.30 conceded per game. FC Twente average 1.84 scored (1.04x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.21 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.2 for FC Twente.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar: Enzo Le Fee penalty gives hosts historic win - as it happened — Sunderland claimed their first European win for 53 years as Enzo Le Fée's second-half penalty proved the difference in a 1-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar. (ESPN, 2026-09-16)