SC Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win 1-2 as model gives 72.1% chance
Eredivisie sees SC Cambuur face AZ Alkmaar at Kooi Stadium. The model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite, assigning a clear 72.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SC Cambuur 6.4%, draw 21.5%, AZ Alkmaar 72.1%.
SC Cambuur have generated 1.40 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.19 conceded per game. AZ Alkmaar average 1.89 scored (1.11x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.24 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for SC Cambuur and 2.2 for AZ Alkmaar.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 64.4%), and both teams are likely to score (61.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 72.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar: Enzo Le Fee penalty gives hosts historic win - as it happened — Sunderland claimed their first European win for 53 years as Enzo Le Fée's second-half penalty proved the difference in a 1-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar. (ESPN, 2026-09-16)