Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction: Sparta Rotterdam to win 2-1 as model gives 62.2% chance
Eredivisie sees Sparta Rotterdam face Willem II at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. The model makes Sparta Rotterdam the favourite, assigning a clear 62.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sparta Rotterdam 62.2%, draw 23.2%, Willem II 14.6%.
Sparta Rotterdam have generated 1.39 goals per game (0.82x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.21 conceded per game. Willem II average 0.86 scored (0.51x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.77 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.5 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 for Willem II.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 68.6%), and both teams are likely to score (59.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 2-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sparta Rotterdam to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 62.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Man United loan teen striker Chido Obi to Dutch side Willem II — Manchester United striker Chido Obi has joined Dutch side Willem II on a season-long loan deal (ESPN, 2026-09-02)