Guingamp vs Saint-Étienne prediction: Saint-Étienne to win 0-2 as model gives 60% chance
Ligue 2 sees Guingamp face Saint-Étienne at Stade Municipal de Roudourou. The model makes Saint-Étienne the favourite, assigning a clear 60% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Guingamp 15.6%, draw 24.4%, Saint-Étienne 60%.
Guingamp have generated 1.21 goals per game (0.91x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Saint-Étienne average 1.95 scored (1.47x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.88 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Guingamp and 1.9 for Saint-Étienne.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 1-1, 0-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Saint-Étienne to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 60% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.