Dijon FCO vs Rodez Aveyron prediction: Dijon FCO to win 2-1 as model gives 48.7% chance
Ligue 2 sees Dijon FCO face Rodez Aveyron at Stade Gaston-Gérard. The model makes Dijon FCO the favourite, assigning a slight 48.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Dijon FCO 48.7%, draw 26.5%, Rodez Aveyron 24.8%.
Dijon FCO have generated 1.90 goals per game (1.42x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.88 conceded per game. Rodez Aveyron average 1.44 scored (1.07x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.78 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.8 for Dijon FCO and 1.8 for Rodez Aveyron.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 84.2%), and both teams are likely to score (79.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 3-1, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Dijon FCO to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.