Boulogne vs Stade de Reims prediction: Stade de Reims to win 0-1 as model gives 51.9% chance
Ligue 2 sees Boulogne face Stade de Reims at Stade de la Libération. The model makes Stade de Reims the favourite, assigning a slight 51.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Boulogne 21.9%, draw 26.2%, Stade de Reims 51.9%.
Boulogne have generated 0.85 goals per game (0.64x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.03 conceded per game. Stade de Reims average 1.86 scored (1.40x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Boulogne and 1.3 for Stade de Reims.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 65.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 41.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 1-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Stade de Reims to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.