Guingamp vs Pau prediction: Guingamp to win 2-1 as model gives 50.5% chance
Ligue 2 sees Guingamp face Pau at Stade Municipal de Roudourou. The model makes Guingamp the favourite, assigning a slight 50.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Guingamp 50.5%, draw 24.9%, Pau 24.6%.
Guingamp have generated 1.16 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.49 conceded per game. Pau average 1.30 scored (1.01x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Guingamp and 1.4 for Pau.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.1%), and both teams are likely to score (60.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Guingamp to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.