Grenoble vs Boulogne prediction: Boulogne to win 0-1 as model gives 46.1% chance
Ligue 2 sees Grenoble face Boulogne at Stade des Alpes. The model makes Boulogne the favourite, assigning a slight 46.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Grenoble 23.1%, draw 30.8%, Boulogne 46.1%.
Grenoble have generated 0.97 goals per game (0.75x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Boulogne average 0.75 scored (0.59x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.12 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Grenoble and 0.7 for Boulogne.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 77.2%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 32.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Boulogne to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.