Santos vs Necaxa prediction: Santos to win 2-1 as model gives 46.4% chance
Liga MX sees Santos face Necaxa at Estadio Corona. The model makes Santos the favourite, assigning a slight 46.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Santos 46.4%, draw 27.1%, Necaxa 26.5%.
Santos have generated 1.44 goals per game (0.98x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.58 conceded per game. Necaxa average 1.15 scored (0.78x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.83 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Santos and 1.1 for Necaxa.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.1%), and both teams are likely to score (59.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Santos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.4% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.