Pachuca vs Tigres UANL prediction: Pachuca to win 1-0 as model gives 37.4% chance
Liga MX sees Pachuca face Tigres UANL at Estadio Hidalgo. The model makes Pachuca the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Pachuca 37.4%, draw 28.5%, Tigres UANL 34.1%.
Pachuca have generated 1.50 goals per game (1.01x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.27 conceded per game. Tigres UANL average 1.29 scored (0.87x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.21 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Pachuca and 1 for Tigres UANL.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.9%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Pachuca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.4% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.