Puebla vs Pumas UNAM prediction: Pumas UNAM to win 1-2 as model gives 47.6% chance
Liga MX sees Puebla face Pumas UNAM at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. The model makes Pumas UNAM the favourite, assigning a slight 47.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Puebla 26.3%, draw 26.1%, Pumas UNAM 47.6%.
Puebla have generated 1.05 goals per game (0.71x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Pumas UNAM average 1.53 scored (1.04x average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Puebla and 1.6 for Pumas UNAM.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (56.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Pumas UNAM to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.