Tijuana vs Santos prediction: Tijuana to win 2-1 as model gives 43.2% chance
Liga MX sees Tijuana face Santos at Estadio Caliente. The model makes Tijuana the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Tijuana 43.2%, draw 27.9%, Santos 28.8%.
Tijuana have generated 1.37 goals per game (0.93x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.30 conceded per game. Santos average 1.47 scored (1.00x average) and are a steady defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Tijuana and 1.2 for Santos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Tijuana to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Transfer rumors, news: Liverpool eye move for Mexico's Mora — Could Mexico's teenage star Gilberto Mora end up moving to Merseyside? Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)