Querétaro vs Cruz Azul prediction: Cruz Azul to win 1-2 as model gives 51.4% chance
Liga MX sees Querétaro face Cruz Azul at Estadio Corregidora. The model makes Cruz Azul the favourite, assigning a slight 51.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Querétaro 22.2%, draw 26.4%, Cruz Azul 51.4%.
Querétaro have generated 1.22 goals per game (0.83x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.31 conceded per game. Cruz Azul average 2.05 scored (1.40x average) and are a steady defence at 1.38 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Querétaro and 1.7 for Cruz Azul.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56.3%), and both teams are likely to score (59.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cruz Azul to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.