Atlas vs Puebla prediction: Atlas to win 1-0 as model gives 51.7% chance
Liga MX sees Atlas face Puebla at Estadio Jalisco. The model makes Atlas the favourite, assigning a slight 51.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlas 51.7%, draw 26.1%, Puebla 22.2%.
Atlas have generated 1.40 goals per game (0.95x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.65 conceded per game. Puebla average 0.92 scored (0.62x average) and are a steady defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Atlas and 0.9 for Puebla.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Atlas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.