Necaxa vs FC Juárez prediction: Necaxa to win 2-1 as model gives 58.1% chance
Liga MX sees Necaxa face FC Juárez at Estadio Victoria. The model makes Necaxa the favourite, assigning a slight 58.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Necaxa 58.1%, draw 23.4%, FC Juárez 18.5%.
Necaxa have generated 1.16 goals per game (0.79x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.88 conceded per game. FC Juárez average 0.95 scored (0.64x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.18 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Necaxa and 1.1 for FC Juárez.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.9%), and both teams are likely to score (57.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Necaxa to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.