Santos vs Pumas UNAM result: 2-0 as Santos were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Santos 2-0 Pumas UNAM. We tipped Santos at 40.7% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga MX sees Santos face Pumas UNAM at Estadio Corona. The model makes Santos the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Santos 40.7%, draw 25.5%, Pumas UNAM 33.8%.
Santos have generated 1.44 goals per game (0.99x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Pumas UNAM average 1.66 scored (1.14x average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Santos and 1.5 for Pumas UNAM.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.1%), and both teams are likely to score (65%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Santos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Dani Alves to pay Pumas $2.25M after CAS ruling upheld — Former Barcelona star Dani Alves will have to pay Liga MX's Pumas UNAM $2.25 million in compensation after a Swiss court ratified the ruling made by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). (ESPN, 2026-08-31)