Pachuca vs Cruz Azul result: 1-2 as Cruz Azul were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Pachuca 1-2 Cruz Azul. We tipped Cruz Azul at 44.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga MX sees Pachuca face Cruz Azul at Estadio Hidalgo. The model makes Cruz Azul the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Pachuca 28.1%, draw 27.8%, Cruz Azul 44.1%.
Pachuca have generated 1.50 goals per game (1.03x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.24 conceded per game. Cruz Azul average 2.05 scored (1.41x average) and are a steady defence at 1.41 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Pachuca and 1.6 for Cruz Azul.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 61.8%), and both teams are likely to score (64.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cruz Azul to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.