Toluca vs Tijuana result: 2-2 as Toluca were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Toluca 2-2 Tijuana. We tipped Toluca at 66.8% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga MX sees Toluca face Tijuana at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. The model makes Toluca the favourite, assigning a clear 66.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Toluca 66.8%, draw 20%, Tijuana 13.2%.
Toluca have generated 1.95 goals per game (1.33x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.28 conceded per game. Tijuana average 1.33 scored (0.91x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.26 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Toluca and 1 for Tijuana.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 56%), and both teams are likely to score (56.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Toluca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 66.8% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Transfer rumors, news: Liverpool eye move for Mexico's Mora — Could Mexico's teenage star Gilberto Mora end up moving to Merseyside? Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)