Puebla vs Monterrey result: 1-4 as Monterrey were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Puebla 1-4 Monterrey. We tipped Monterrey at 54.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Liga MX sees Puebla face Monterrey at Estadio Cuauhtémoc. The model makes Monterrey the favourite, assigning a slight 54.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Puebla 19.1%, draw 26.8%, Monterrey 54.1%.
Puebla have generated 0.91 goals per game (0.62x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Monterrey average 1.56 scored (1.07x average) and are a steady defence at 1.48 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Puebla and 1.3 for Monterrey.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Monterrey to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.