Cruz Azul vs FC Juárez prediction: Cruz Azul to win 2-0 as model gives 81.6% chance
Liga MX sees Cruz Azul face FC Juárez at Estadio Banorte. The model makes Cruz Azul the favourite, assigning a strong 81.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cruz Azul 81.6%, draw 13.9%, FC Juárez 4.5%.
Cruz Azul have generated 1.88 goals per game (1.28x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.49 conceded per game. FC Juárez average 1.09 scored (0.74x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.07 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3 for Cruz Azul and 1 for FC Juárez.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 75.6%), and both teams are likely to score (60.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cruz Azul to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 81.6% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.