Santos vs Querétaro prediction: Santos narrow favourites at 44.7%
Liga MX sees Santos face Querétaro at Estadio Corona. The model makes Santos the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Santos 44.7%, draw 23.5%, Querétaro 31.8%.
Santos have generated 1.18 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.63 conceded per game. Querétaro average 1.33 scored (0.91x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.98 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Santos and 1.3 for Querétaro.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 62%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.6%).
Verdict: Santos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.7% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.