Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL prediction: Guadalajara to win 1-0 as model gives 58.3% chance
Liga MX sees Guadalajara face Tigres UANL at Estadio Akron. The model makes Guadalajara the favourite, assigning a slight 58.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Guadalajara 58.3%, draw 23.5%, Tigres UANL 18.2%.
Guadalajara have generated 1.70 goals per game (1.16x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.11 conceded per game. Tigres UANL average 1.41 scored (0.97x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.18 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Guadalajara and 1 for Tigres UANL.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Guadalajara to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.