Tijuana vs Puebla prediction: Tijuana to win 1-0 as model gives 53.8% chance
Liga MX sees Tijuana face Puebla at Estadio Caliente. The model makes Tijuana the favourite, assigning a slight 53.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Tijuana 53.8%, draw 26.3%, Puebla 19.9%.
Tijuana have generated 1.43 goals per game (0.98x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.35 conceded per game. Puebla average 0.98 scored (0.67x average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Tijuana and 0.8 for Puebla.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.6%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (45.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Tijuana to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53.8% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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