Atlante vs Pumas UNAM prediction: Atlante to win 2-1 as model gives 47.7% chance
Liga MX sees Atlante face Pumas UNAM at Estadio Banorte. The model makes Atlante the favourite, assigning a slight 47.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atlante 47.7%, draw 24.4%, Pumas UNAM 28%.
Atlante have generated 1.09 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Pumas UNAM average 1.64 scored (1.12x average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Atlante and 1.6 for Pumas UNAM.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Atlante to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Dani Alves to pay Pumas $2.25M after CAS ruling upheld — Former Barcelona star Dani Alves will have to pay Liga MX's Pumas UNAM $2.25 million in compensation after a Swiss court ratified the ruling made by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). (ESPN, 2026-08-31)