Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima result: 0-3 as Sanfrecce Hiroshima were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Mito Hollyhock 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. We tipped Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 70.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
J1 League sees Mito Hollyhock face Sanfrecce Hiroshima at Kasamatsu Stadium. The model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite, assigning a clear 70.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Mito Hollyhock 10.6%, draw 19.3%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 70.1%.
Mito Hollyhock have generated 0.89 goals per game (0.63x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.92 conceded per game. Sanfrecce Hiroshima average 2.02 scored (1.44x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.92 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.6 for Mito Hollyhock and 2.5 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 60.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-3, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 70.1% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.