Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse result: 4-0 as Sanfrecce Hiroshima were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Shimizu S-Pulse. We tipped Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 67.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
J1 League sees Sanfrecce Hiroshima face Shimizu S-Pulse at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima. The model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite, assigning a clear 67.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sanfrecce Hiroshima 67.9%, draw 21%, Shimizu S-Pulse 11.1%.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have generated 1.90 goals per game (1.36x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.97 conceded per game. Shimizu S-Pulse average 0.97 scored (0.70x average) and are a steady defence at 1.48 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.3 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.6 for Shimizu S-Pulse.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 41.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 67.9% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.