Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos result: 1-1 as Yokohama F. Marinos were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Yokohama F. Marinos. We tipped Yokohama F. Marinos at 41% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
J1 League sees Nagoya Grampus face Yokohama F. Marinos at Toyota Stadium (Japan). The model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite, assigning a narrow 41% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Nagoya Grampus 32.5%, draw 26.5%, Yokohama F. Marinos 41%.
Nagoya Grampus have generated 1.40 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.58 conceded per game. Yokohama F. Marinos average 1.46 scored (1.04x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.5 for Yokohama F. Marinos.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (56.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Yokohama F. Marinos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 41% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.