Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo result: 0-4 as FC Tokyo were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Fagiano Okayama 0-4 FC Tokyo. We tipped FC Tokyo at 55.3% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
J1 League sees Fagiano Okayama face FC Tokyo at City Light Stadium. The model makes FC Tokyo the favourite, assigning a slight 55.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fagiano Okayama 20.5%, draw 24.2%, FC Tokyo 55.3%.
Fagiano Okayama have generated 1.27 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.38 conceded per game. FC Tokyo average 1.95 scored (1.39x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.79 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Fagiano Okayama and 1.7 for FC Tokyo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 1-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: FC Tokyo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.3% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.