Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima prediction: Deportes Tolima to win 0-1 as model gives 47.9% chance
Primera A sees Águilas Doradas face Deportes Tolima at Atanasio Girardot. The model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite, assigning a slight 47.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Águilas Doradas 23.3%, draw 28.8%, Deportes Tolima 47.9%.
Águilas Doradas have generated 1.23 goals per game (0.97x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Deportes Tolima average 1.22 scored (0.96x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.04 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Águilas Doradas and 1.2 for Deportes Tolima.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.4%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportes Tolima to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.