Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Córdoba prediction: Deportivo Pasto to win 1-0 as model gives 78% chance
Primera A sees Deportivo Pasto face Jaguares de Córdoba at Departamental Libertad. The model makes Deportivo Pasto the favourite, assigning a strong 78% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Deportivo Pasto 78%, draw 14.3%, Jaguares de Córdoba 7.7%.
Deportivo Pasto have generated 0.90 goals per game (0.72x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Jaguares de Córdoba average 1.09 scored (0.87x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.79 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Deportivo Pasto and 1.1 for Jaguares de Córdoba.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo Pasto to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 78% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.