Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Cali prediction: Deportivo Cali to win 0-1 as model gives 52.9% chance
Primera A sees Fortaleza CEIF face Deportivo Cali at Metropolitano de Techo. The model makes Deportivo Cali the favourite, assigning a slight 52.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fortaleza CEIF 21.1%, draw 26%, Deportivo Cali 52.9%.
Fortaleza CEIF have generated 1.08 goals per game (0.86x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.46 conceded per game. Deportivo Cali average 1.35 scored (1.07x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.70 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Fortaleza CEIF and 1.4 for Deportivo Cali.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 65.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 38.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo Cali to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.