Deportivo Cali vs Boyacá Chicó FC prediction: Deportivo Cali to win 1-0 as model gives 88.7% chance
Primera A sees Deportivo Cali face Boyacá Chicó FC at Deportivo Cali. The model makes Deportivo Cali the favourite, assigning a strong 88.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Deportivo Cali 88.7%, draw 8.3%, Boyacá Chicó FC 3%.
Deportivo Cali have generated 1.33 goals per game (1.07x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.71 conceded per game. Boyacá Chicó FC average 0.81 scored (0.65x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Deportivo Cali and 0.4 for Boyacá Chicó FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.5%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 29.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo Cali to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 88.7% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.