Cúcuta Deportivo vs Águilas Doradas result: 0-2 as Cúcuta Deportivo were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Cúcuta Deportivo 0-2 Águilas Doradas. We tipped Cúcuta Deportivo at 37.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Primera A sees Cúcuta Deportivo face Águilas Doradas at General Santander. The model makes Cúcuta Deportivo the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cúcuta Deportivo 37.5%, draw 26.6%, Águilas Doradas 35.9%.
Cúcuta Deportivo have generated 1.20 goals per game (0.97x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.51 conceded per game. Águilas Doradas average 1.20 scored (0.96x average) and are a steady defence at 1.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Cúcuta Deportivo and 1.3 for Águilas Doradas.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (57.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Cúcuta Deportivo to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.5% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.