Once Caldas vs Alianza FC prediction: Once Caldas to win 2-0 as model gives 55.7% chance
Primera A sees Once Caldas face Alianza FC at Palogrande. The model makes Once Caldas the favourite, assigning a slight 55.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Once Caldas 55.7%, draw 24.7%, Alianza FC 19.6%.
Once Caldas have generated 1.27 goals per game (1.02x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.13 conceded per game. Alianza FC average 1.02 scored (0.81x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.61 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Once Caldas and 0.8 for Alianza FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Once Caldas to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.7% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.