Llaneros FC vs Deportivo Cali result: 0-3 as Deportivo Cali were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Llaneros FC 0-3 Deportivo Cali. We tipped Deportivo Cali at 48% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Primera A sees Llaneros FC face Deportivo Cali at Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pele. The model makes Deportivo Cali the favourite, assigning a slight 48% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Llaneros FC 25.1%, draw 26.9%, Deportivo Cali 48%.
Llaneros FC have generated 1.01 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.22 conceded per game. Deportivo Cali average 1.25 scored (1.00x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.74 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Llaneros FC and 1.1 for Deportivo Cali.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 74.3%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 33.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo Cali to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.