Internacional de Bogotá vs Fortaleza CEIF result: 2-1 as Internacional de Bogotá were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Internacional de Bogotá 2-1 Fortaleza CEIF. We tipped Internacional de Bogotá at 50.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Primera A sees Internacional de Bogotá face Fortaleza CEIF at Metropolitano de Techo. The model makes Internacional de Bogotá the favourite, assigning a slight 50.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Internacional de Bogotá 50.9%, draw 24.9%, Fortaleza CEIF 24.2%.
Internacional de Bogotá have generated 1.17 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Fortaleza CEIF average 1.09 scored (0.86x average) and are a steady defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Internacional de Bogotá and 1.2 for Fortaleza CEIF.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Internacional de Bogotá to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.