Alianza FC vs Internacional de Bogotá prediction: Alianza FC to win 2-1 as model gives 44.9% chance
Primera A sees Alianza FC face Internacional de Bogotá at Armando Maestre Pavajeau. The model makes Alianza FC the favourite, assigning a narrow 44.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Alianza FC 44.9%, draw 26.7%, Internacional de Bogotá 28.5%.
Alianza FC have generated 1.02 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.61 conceded per game. Internacional de Bogotá average 1.21 scored (0.97x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Alianza FC and 1.4 for Internacional de Bogotá.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Alianza FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 44.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.