Deportivo Pereira vs Boyacá Chicó FC result: 2-0 as Deportivo Pereira were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Deportivo Pereira 2-0 Boyacá Chicó FC. We tipped Deportivo Pereira at 51.5% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Primera A sees Deportivo Pereira face Boyacá Chicó FC at Deportivo Cali. The model makes Deportivo Pereira the favourite, assigning a slight 51.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Deportivo Pereira 51.5%, draw 24.6%, Boyacá Chicó FC 23.9%.
Deportivo Pereira have generated 0.71 goals per game (0.56x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Boyacá Chicó FC average 0.83 scored (0.66x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Deportivo Pereira and 0.9 for Boyacá Chicó FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 68.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 40.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Deportivo Pereira to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.5% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.