OH Leuven vs Lommel SK prediction: OH Leuven to win 1-0 as model gives 58.2% chance
Belgian Pro League sees OH Leuven face Lommel SK at King Power at Den Dreef Stadion. The model makes OH Leuven the favourite, assigning a slight 58.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is OH Leuven 58.2%, draw 20.2%, Lommel SK 21.6%.
OH Leuven have generated 0.93 goals per game (0.64x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Lommel SK average 1.16 scored (0.80x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.15 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for OH Leuven and 1.1 for Lommel SK.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 68.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 39.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 0-0, 1-1, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: OH Leuven to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.2% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.