Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley prediction: Queens Park Rangers to win 2-1 as model gives 49.6% chance
Championship sees Queens Park Rangers face Burnley at MATRADE Loftus Road. The model makes Queens Park Rangers the favourite, assigning a slight 49.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Queens Park Rangers 49.6%, draw 25.6%, Burnley 24.8%.
Queens Park Rangers have generated 1.51 goals per game (1.09x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Burnley average 1.33 scored (0.96x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.80 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for Queens Park Rangers and 1.2 for Burnley.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 66.8%), and both teams are likely to score (64.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Queens Park Rangers to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.6% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Jamie Vardy scores in 20th consecutive season as Burnley beaten by Wolves — Jamie Vardy scored in his 20th straight season on Friday when he struck for Burnley in their 2-1 Championship defeat by Wolves. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- West Ham stunned by referee's 'massive mistake' in QPR draw — West Ham United manager Nuno Espirito Santo was left feeling the pain of two penalties after his side missed the chance to go top of the Championship. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- Jamie Vardy joins Burnley on a season-long contract — Former Leicester forward Jamie Vardy has joined Burnley for the remainder of the season, the club have announced. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)