Millwall vs Derby County prediction: Millwall to win 2-0 as model gives 54% chance
Championship sees Millwall face Derby County at The Den. The model makes Millwall the favourite, assigning a slight 54% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Millwall 54%, draw 25.4%, Derby County 20.6%.
Millwall have generated 1.44 goals per game (1.05x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Derby County average 1.10 scored (0.80x average) and are a steady defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Millwall and 1 for Derby County.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Millwall to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Racism allegation mars Swansea win at Millwall — Substitute Ronald scored a last-minute winner to keep Swansea top of the Championship after their match at Millwall was held up due to alleged racist chanting aimed at the visitors' Eom Ji-sung. (ESPN, 2026-10-14)
- Millwall vs. West Ham: English football's most notorious rivalry is back — The latest installment of one of English football's most notorious rivalries will take place this weekend. (ESPN, 2026-10-02)
- Millwall 2-2 West Ham: Amid craft beer and content creators, new-look Dockers' Derby engaging as ever — Almost 15 years on from the last one, the new-look Dockers' Derby is as engaging as ever. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- West Ham rescue draw at Millwall from two goals down — West Ham came from two goals down to snatch a 2-2 draw from a heated London derby at Millwall. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- Millwall's Filip Marschall accuses West Ham's Taty Castellanos of spitting — Millwall goalkeeper Filip Marschall has alleged that West Ham forward Taty Castellanos spat on him during a hard-fought 2-2 draw on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- Millwall vs West Ham United: TV channel, how to watch in UK, kick-off time, live stream, team news — Everything you need to know ahead of the EFL Championship match between West Ham United and Millwall (ESPN, 2026-09-19)