Lincoln City vs Burnley prediction: Burnley to win 1-2 as model gives 47.1% chance
Championship sees Lincoln City face Burnley at LNER Stadium. The model makes Burnley the favourite, assigning a slight 47.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lincoln City 26.7%, draw 26.2%, Burnley 47.1%.
Lincoln City have generated 0.81 goals per game (0.59x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.85 conceded per game. Burnley average 1.52 scored (1.11x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.76 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for Lincoln City and 1.9 for Burnley.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 58.2%), and both teams are likely to score (59.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Burnley to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.1% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Jamie Vardy scores in 20th consecutive season as Burnley beaten by Wolves — Jamie Vardy scored in his 20th straight season on Friday when he struck for Burnley in their 2-1 Championship defeat by Wolves. (ESPN, 2026-10-16)
- Jamie Vardy joins Burnley on a season-long contract — Former Leicester forward Jamie Vardy has joined Burnley for the remainder of the season, the club have announced. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)