Derby County vs Stoke City prediction: Derby County to win 2-1 as model gives 39.7% chance
Championship sees Derby County face Stoke City at Pride Park. The model makes Derby County the favourite, assigning a narrow 39.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Derby County 39.7%, draw 26.8%, Stoke City 33.5%.
Derby County have generated 1.19 goals per game (0.88x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Stoke City average 1.33 scored (0.99x average) and are a steady defence at 1.42 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for Derby County and 1.3 for Stoke City.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Derby County to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 39.7% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Stoke City near deal for USMNT's McGlynn from Dynamo - sources — Stoke City is in the final stages of acquiring Houston Dynamo and United States international midfielder Jack McGlynn for a fee of up to $5.5 million including add-ons, sources confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)