Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County prediction: Queens Park Rangers to win 1-0 as model gives 60.1% chance
Championship sees Queens Park Rangers face Derby County at MATRADE Loftus Road. The model makes Queens Park Rangers the favourite, assigning a clear 60.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Queens Park Rangers 60.1%, draw 22.1%, Derby County 17.8%.
Queens Park Rangers have generated 1.25 goals per game (0.92x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.30 conceded per game. Derby County average 1.20 scored (0.89x average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Queens Park Rangers and 1 for Derby County.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Queens Park Rangers to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 60.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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