Notts County vs Stockport County prediction: Stockport County to win 0-1 as model gives 68.7% chance
League One sees Notts County face Stockport County at Meadow Lane. The model makes Stockport County the favourite, assigning a clear 68.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Notts County 8.1%, draw 23.2%, Stockport County 68.7%.
Notts County have generated 0.80 goals per game (0.60x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.07 conceded per game. Stockport County average 1.82 scored (1.36x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.10 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.7 for Notts County and 1.3 for Stockport County.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 66.4%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 39.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Stockport County to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.7% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.