Doncaster Rovers vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction: Sheffield Wednesday to win 0-2 as model gives 45.9% chance
League One sees Doncaster Rovers face Sheffield Wednesday at Eco-Power Stadium. The model makes Sheffield Wednesday the favourite, assigning a slight 45.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Doncaster Rovers 28.4%, draw 25.7%, Sheffield Wednesday 45.9%.
Doncaster Rovers have generated 1.05 goals per game (0.78x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Sheffield Wednesday average 2.00 scored (1.49x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.01 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Doncaster Rovers and 1.8 for Sheffield Wednesday.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 1-1, 0-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sheffield Wednesday to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.9% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.