Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle result: 3-0 as Plymouth Argyle were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Stevenage 3-0 Plymouth Argyle. We tipped Plymouth Argyle at 45.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League One sees Stevenage face Plymouth Argyle at Lamex Stadium. The model makes Plymouth Argyle the favourite, assigning a slight 45.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Stevenage 26.1%, draw 28%, Plymouth Argyle 45.9%.
Stevenage have generated 1.08 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.09 conceded per game. Plymouth Argyle average 1.72 scored (1.29x average) and are a steady defence at 1.25 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Stevenage and 1.3 for Plymouth Argyle.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 56.8%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Plymouth Argyle to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Jack Wilshere sent off as Luton fall to Stevenage defeat — Manager Jack Wilshere was sent off and had to endure Luton slipping to a 2-1 loss away to Stevenage from the dressing room. (ESPN, 2026-09-10)