Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday result: 2-0 as Sheffield Wednesday were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Notts County 2-0 Sheffield Wednesday. We tipped Sheffield Wednesday at 56.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
League One sees Notts County face Sheffield Wednesday at Meadow Lane. The model makes Sheffield Wednesday the favourite, assigning a slight 56.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Notts County 19.2%, draw 24.2%, Sheffield Wednesday 56.6%.
Notts County have generated 0.67 goals per game (0.50x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Sheffield Wednesday average 2.28 scored (1.71x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.87 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.5 for Notts County and 1.8 for Sheffield Wednesday.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 33.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-2, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Sheffield Wednesday to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 56.6% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.