Shrewsbury Town vs Gillingham prediction: Shrewsbury Town to win 2-1 as model gives 55.1% chance
League Two sees Shrewsbury Town face Gillingham at The Croud Meadow. The model makes Shrewsbury Town the favourite, assigning a slight 55.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Shrewsbury Town 55.1%, draw 23.8%, Gillingham 21.1%.
Shrewsbury Town have generated 1.16 goals per game (0.89x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.47 conceded per game. Gillingham average 1.25 scored (0.96x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.58 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Shrewsbury Town and 1.3 for Gillingham.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Shrewsbury Town to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.1% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.