Oldham Athletic vs Crawley Town prediction: Oldham Athletic to win 2-0 as model gives 57% chance
League Two sees Oldham Athletic face Crawley Town at Boundary Park. The model makes Oldham Athletic the favourite, assigning a slight 57% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Oldham Athletic 57%, draw 24.9%, Crawley Town 18.1%.
Oldham Athletic have generated 1.30 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Crawley Town average 1.03 scored (0.79x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.68 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Oldham Athletic and 0.9 for Crawley Town.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (52.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Oldham Athletic to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 57% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.